Read the emotional volume
A major anniversary or graduation can support something lasting or ceremonial. A casual thank-you usually works better when it is useful, consumable, or easy to enjoy without creating a sense that the recipient now owes you something.
Use what changed as your clue
For a move, new job, recovery, or new family routine, look at what the person is doing differently now. A gift that removes friction from that change is often more thoughtful than an object printed with the name of the occasion.
Plan the handover, not just the item
Decide whether the gift must travel, arrive on a date, or be opened in front of a group. A compact package, a scheduled delivery, or a short note explaining your choice can matter as much as spending more on the gift itself.